Trump's vibes honeymoon just average
Trump king of zeitgeist, but 4% post-election vibes bump < Clinton 1992, Trump 2016.
Kylie Bax, Trump, Clinton, Melania at US Open 2000. Photo source: Clinton Presidential Library
(Best photo I could find to illustrate Trump and Clinton having 2 best presidential honeymoons.)
Quotable quote
Ezra Klein in the New York Times:
“The election was close, but the vibes have been a rout… social media is humanity’s vibes machine … with Musk’s … Twitter sitting at the apex ... And so the Trumpist right has gained disproportionate influence over vibes”.
Hot takes (some even evidence-based)
The President has NOT converted his total dominance of the twitterverse into a significant post-election Trump bump in economic vibes.
The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is up 4% since the 2024 election.
It’s not unusual for most Americans to feel better economic vibes after a new president is elected by voter discontent with economic conditions.
Trump is on his 2nd honeymoon with Americans. This latest Trump bump in sentiment is not as strong as the 8% lift in vibes after Trump’s 2016 election win or the 18% jump after Bill Clinton won in 1992.
Trump is inheriting the 2nd best misery index (low unemployment and inflation) in the past 50 years.
But, even after the 4% post-election Trump bump, economic vibes are the 5th lowest at the start of a new presidential term in the past 50 years.
After the inauguration of a new president, the honeymoon is over. From now on, economic vibes will rise and fall with what people think of the economy.
If elections remain free and fair, economic vibes will decide the 2028 race.
The Republican nominee will win in 2028 only if economic vibes before the election are up another 10% from their current low level.
Economic vibes are NOT divorced from economic data. At the very least, the annual inflation rate before the 2028 election must be below 4% for the Republicans to have a chance.
Public anger at high inflation lingers long after the annual rate subsides. If the annual rate exceeds 5% at any time over the next 4 years, the Republicans will likely lose in 2028 just as the Democrats did in 2024 due to high inflation in 2022.
Public anger about recessions and unemployment is short-lived. High unemployment matters only during the election year. The Republicans could survive a recession in the 1st half of Trump’s term, if 2028 is a year of economic recovery with strong jobs growth and unemployment below 5%.
Trump could be President for life thanks to a loophole in the 22nd Amendment.
Partisan polarization and economic vibes
Partisan polarization affects consumer sentiment after all elections when the White House changes hands.
Members of the winning party feel much better about the economy as soon as their candidate wins.
Members of the losing party feel much lower economic vibes.
Independents not affiliated with either party usually feel a bit more optimistic, probably because some independents voted for the winning candidate at least partly in hopes of better economic results.
Republicans have responded to both Trump election victories with strong bursts of economic optimism. Consumer sentiment is up +60% among Republicans since November 2024 – even better than the +44% rise after 2016.
Democratic despondency has been about the same after both Trump wins. Consumer sentiment is down -22% after the 2024 election vs. -25% after 2016.
Independents’ economic mood is up +5% since the 2024 election vs. +15% rise after the 2016 election. Independents’ vibes rose +3% after Biden was elected in 2020.
Note: 3-month averages to October 2024 and January 2025 based on this author’s calculation of the adjustment necessary to render ICS comparable to readings before the April 2024 change in survey methodology.
Economic vibes after the post-election honeymoon is over
Between the inauguration of a new president and the next election, vibe trends depend more on how the economy is doing than partisan feelings.
There is a slight tendency for members of the party holding the White House to be more buoyed by good economic results and depressed less by bad times.
For example, during the steady growth of Trump’s 1st administration to the pre-covid peak of February 2020, Republicans’ consumer sentiment rose by 9% vs. +2% rise for Democrats and +0.4% uptick for independents. (See February 2020 row in above table.)
Republicans’ consumer sentiment then fell by -24% from February to June 2020 during and just after the covid recession vs. -28% drop for Democrats and -26% for independents. (See June 2020 row.)
During the inflation-induced vibecession of June 2021 to August 2022, Democrat vibes fell by -34% vs. -44% drop for Republicans and -36% for independents. (Aug. 2022 row.)
Republicans are prone to bigger vibe upswings than Democrats when holding the White House and bigger vibe declines when out of power.
However, the greater volatility of Republican vibes both down and up during the Biden presidency may also reflect Republicans’ greater sensitivity to inflation.
Too soon to talk about 2028?
Definitely not too soon, if you’re an election aficionado.
But, if you believe that 2024 will be the last free and fair US election, skip the rest after clicking the links below to read about two possible scenarios:
Supreme Court allows Trump to run for President in 2028. (NY Times)
Trump is nominated as Vice President in 2028. President Vance announces his resignation in his inaugural address. Trump takes over as President. Rinse and repeat every 4 years. You know that Trump will likely outlive Carter. (slate.com)
If you do believe there is a chance that the 2028 election will be free and fair, read on.
In addition to inheriting the 2nd best economy in more than 50 years, the Trump administration assumes the economic angst that torpedoed Kamala Harris’ campaign.
Even with the post-election Trump bump to 81, consumer sentiment remains just below the average level of 82 over the past 25 years – and even further below the long-run average of 86 going back to 1952.
The Republican candidate in 2028 – dear reader, you fill in your preference: Vice President JD Vance? Donald Trump Jr.? – will not win without better economic vibes than the current level of ICS = 81.
No party has ever kept the White House with ICS before the election below 82.6 when Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012. And, President Obama enjoyed an incumbency advantage in 2012 that Vice President Vance cannot count on in 2028.
To be elected president in 2028, Vance needs economic vibes closer to 90 than the current level of 81. And, even economic vibes with ICS = 90 might not be enough to elect Vance. Since World War II, 5 vice presidents have been nominated to succeed their bosses. Only George HW Bush won in 1988 with pre-election ICS = 94.1. Nixon and Humphrey lost close races in 1960 and 1968 respectively with ICS just over 90.
Can the Trump bump keep going to elect Vance in 2028?
Yes. It’s possible.
Look at Trump’s 1st term. The economy improved for 3 years until February 2020. Annual inflation remained quiet around the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Unemployment fell below 4% for the first time since January 1970. Economic vibes remained optimistic. ICS stayed well above average and was 4% higher than when Trump took office.
President Trump would have won in 2020, if there had been no covid and the economy had remained strong until the November 2020 election. Up until the 2020 covid recession, economic vibes were similar to (or, in some cases, better than) when incumbent Presidents Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and Bush the younger were re-elected.
If economic conditions improve and vibes rise during Trump’s 2nd term as they did in the 1st term until covid intervened, Vice President Vance (or whoever is the Republican nominee) will move into the White House on January 20, 2029.
It’s the “economic vibes, stupid” that decide most presidential elections, not the economic data on election day. But, economic vibes are not independent from the evolution of economic data over a presidential term. Vance’s good-vibes path to the White House depends on:
Inflation remaining under control between now and November 2028.
Unemployment in the autumn 2028 being relatively low – less than 5%.
What we learned from the 2024 election is that voter anger about high inflation lingers thanks to the high prices left behind by past inflation. The annual rate fell from 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.6% in the September 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released before election day. Consumer sentiment recovered from the vibecession low of August 2022, but not by enough to elect Kamala Harris. 2024 economic vibes were the 4th-lowest level in 19 presidential elections going back to 1952. No candidate has ever kept the White House with economic vibes so low. Harris’s defeat proved yet again that it’s the “economic vibes, stupid” that decide the fate of the party holding the White House.
Note: 3-month averages for ICS. 2024 ICS = 3-month average to October for pre-election and 3-month average to January 2025. Both based on this author’s calculation of the adjustment necessary to render published ICS data comparable to readings before the April 2024 change in survey methodology.
The US economy is looking good right now as President Trump takes office. But, if inflation bounces back above 4% any time over the next 4 years, Vice President Vance will have to fight low economic vibes to win in 2028.
A significant rise in unemployment lasting until November 2028 would also defeat Vance or any Republican nominee. President George Bush the elder discovered the perils of presiding over an election-year rise in unemployment when he lost in 1992.
However, President Reagan survived a severe economic downturn that drove unemployment up in the middle of his first term. By November 1984, the economy was growing and unemployment was back where it started when Reagan took office. Pre-election vibes were high – October 1984 ICS = 98.8 (3-month average). Americans re-elected Reagan with an 18 percentage point margin in the national popular vote. Voter concern about high unemployment goes away relatively quickly if there is a strong economic recovery with job growth before election day.
I can’t predict how inflation, unemployment and consumer sentiment will unfold over the next 4 years. All I can say is that JD Vance will not win a free and fair election if there is a significant rise in inflation at any time over the next 4 years or if unemployment is significantly higher in November 2028 than the current 4.1% rate. If the economic data turn bad at the wrong time, then it will be the Republican Party’s turn to learn that it’s “economic vibes, stupid” that decide presidential elections.