Rubio's “fake jobs” conspiracy theory
Senator’s tweet easily debunked, but may help his bid to be Trump's Secretary of State.
Source: https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/official-photo
Hot takes (some even evidence-based)
Trump attacked the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in August. His false charges were refuted by the ultra-conservative economist who ran BLS under Trump.
Senator Rubio’s recent tweet about “another fake jobs report from the Biden Harris government” parroted Trump’s earlier attack on BLS.
If BLS faked the latest jobs report, they did a very bad job. A tiny tweak to the “fake” numbers would have doubled the decline in the unemployment rate.
Mainstream media mocked Rubio’s tweet – e.g., “The Jobs Numbers Don’t Lie, But Politicians Do” (bloomberg.com, October 11).
Trump doesn’t care about “Lamestream Media … FAKE NEWS”.
In Trumpworld, Rubio’s 2.7 million twitter views might help the Senator’s bid to be Secretary of State in the Donald’s second administration.
Senator Rubio’s tweet is yet another example of the stupidification of the Republican Party.
Senator Rubio vs. Bureau of Labor Statistics
With luck, Marco Rubio will soon be forgotten along with his October 4th tweet:
“Another fake jobs report from the Biden-Harris government”
Why waste time on a Senator Marco Rubio tweet? Because I am morbidly fascinated by the stupidification of the Republican Party under Boss Trump.
Rubio’s tweet was his response to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent”
The monthly release generated mildly positive headlines about the economy because:
The monthly jobs gain of 254,000 (up 0.16% from August) came in above the consensus forecast of 140,000 (+0.09%).
The September unemployment rate of 4.1% was down from 4.2% in August.
“Little Marco” parroting Boss Trump’s attack on BLS
On August 21st, when the BLS released regularly scheduled annual revisions to past payroll employment estimates, candidate Donald Trump responded:
“It really isn’t a revision, it’s a total lie. There’s never been any revision like this. They wanted it to come out after the election, but somehow it got leaked.”
The facts are:
BLS announced in July that the revision would be released on August 21st.
The downward revisions to the payroll employment data were large (-0.5%), but not out of line with past revisions — e.g., -0.3% in 2019 and -0.7% in 2009.
William Beach vs. Donald Trump: “Check your facts”
William Beach, who ran the BLS under Trump, tweeted against his former boss:
‘For those who think the big revision to the BLS jobs numbers "leaked" and was meant to come out after the election, remember that BLS always announces its draft revisions in August and announced this year's date, August 21, many months ago. It is important to check your facts.’
Trump himself nominated Beach as BLS head in 2017. Beach brought to his BLS job impeccable conservative credentials from working at the Mercatus Center and Heritage Foundation (of Project 2025 fame, which Beach did not work on).
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics is part of a deep state conspiracy to make Biden and Harris look good, the BLS data fakers must have brainwashed arch-conservative William Beach during his time as BLS head.
Total jobs: Establishment Survey vs. Household Survey
Each month, BLS releases two different estimates of total employment:
nonfarm payroll jobs from the Establishment Survey of employers
total number of individuals employed from the Household Survey of individuals and families
There is a debate about which survey provides the best look at the job market. I can’t add to that debate other than to note that most business journalists cover nonfarm payroll jobs from the Establishment Survey every month and pay little or no attention to total employment from the Household Survey.
However, reporters do cover the unemployment rate estimate from the Household Survey, which is the only source for unemployment data. The Establishment Survey of jobs is not designed to find out how many American workers are unemployed each month – available, but unable to find work.
A closer look at the “fake” September jobs numbers
If Senator Rubio is right and the jobs numbers were “fake”, the Biden-Harris deep state puppet-masters should tell their BLS fakers: “You’re fired.”
BLS was so incompetent that the “fake” rise of 254,000 jobs in the Establishment Survey, which gets all the media coverage, was much lower than the 440,000 gain in Household Survey total employment, which almost no one reports.
Even worse for Biden-Harris, the unemployment rate estimate in the September Household Survey was 4.052% – down from 4.22% in August. Unemployment fell by 0.17 percentage points from August to September. But, the rate is always rounded to the nearest first decimal point. As a result, the change in unemployment was reported as a 0.1-point decline from 4.2% in August to 4.1% in September.
If BLS fakers had really been on the job for Biden-Harris, all they had to do was boost Household Survey total employment by 2,000 jobs or by 0.001% (one/one hundred thousandth) and then subtract that same amount from their “fake” unemployment number. The September unemployment rate would have been 4.0498% – rounded down to 4.0% and reported as a 0.2-point decline from 4.2%.
Who’s BSing? BLS or Senator Rubio
If Senator Rubio is right and the September jobs numbers were “fake”, the “fakers” were too stupid to realize that a tiny tweak to their Household Survey would have doubled the reported decline in the unemployment rate.
One possible explanation is that the September jobs report was a head fake. BLS “fakers” knew that Trump had cottoned on to their “lies”. The masterminds of deep state data deliberately devised “fake” September jobs numbers that would look as if no one would make up false estimates in such a stupid way.
Or another explanation is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is staffed by dedicated professionals who do their best each and every month providing an up-to-date picture of the American job market.
And perhaps Senator Rubio tweeted a preposterous accusation with no supporting evidence because he needs to continue currying favor with his boss to keep hope alive of being appointed Secretary of State in the second Trump administration.