Bret Stephens isn’t stupid, except about politics
NY Times pundit tells Harris how to reach young voters. Make Liz Cheney Sec. of State!
Photo credit: US House Office of Photography, Liz Cheney 116th Congress official portrait
Hot takes (some even evidence-based)
Bret Stephens does a good job as NY Times opinion columnist provoking strong reactions from readers. As a political analyst, he’s not as good.
Stephens’ advice for Harris to reach young undecided voters: Hire an 86-year old financier, 71-year-old disgraced general and announce before the election that Liz Cheney will be Secretary of State.
Stephens’ suggestions won’t help Harris allay voters’ economic angst.
Harris should stick to what she’s been doing. Paint a picture of a brighter future. Take advantage of any good economic news this month. Hope that Trump stays too crazy to focus on the economy.
Bret Stephens gets the election partly right
In today’s online nytimes.com, columnist Bret Stephens asks:
“why isn’t Kamala Harris running away with the election? The race in the battleground states is basically a tie, despite Harris spending three times as much money as Donald Trump and having a much bigger ground game — and despite Trump putting in a terrible debate performance and generally making a spectacle of himself, or worse, every time he opens his mouth.”
Stephens’ diagnosis of Harris’ problem:
“a high proportion of undecided voters are young, low-income and Black or Latino … Harris hasn’t done enough to reassure undecided voters that she’s decisive, knowledgeable and well advised”
Stephens’ solution: Harris needs more elite backers
“In 2008, Barack Obama reassured wavering voters by naming Warren Buffett, Paul Volcker and Colin Powell as some of the people from whom he took advice. She (Harris) ought to do something similar: Name some widely respected policy heavyweights as members of her brain trust — people like Robert Rubin and David Petraeus. And announce that Liz Cheney will be her secretary of state.”
Robert Rubin is a distinguished American with private and public sector experience. But, he’s 86 years old and has been out of the news for many years.
Retired General David Petraeus is 71. He served his country to the best of his ability. If Harris brought in Petraeus as her adviser, media coverage would be dominated by rehashing why then President Obama had to fire CIA Director Petraeus in 2012. How would that help the Harris campaign?
Liz Cheney is already campaigning for Harris. But, are “undecided voters … young, low-income and Black or Latino” really waiting for Harris to appoint Liz Cheney as Secretary of State before the election? One small front for the Harris campaign is her contest with Green candidate Jill Stein for young environmentally-conscious voters. Would Secretary of State Cheney’s past zeal to investigate US environmental groups help bring these voters over to Harris? Would news coverage of Secretary of State Cheney’s support for the 2003 invasion of Iraq bring young voters over to Harris in the must-win state of Michigan where Arab-American votes are up for grabs?
Why could Trump win? Feelings about the economy, stupid
I agree with Bret Stephens that Donald Trump is a terrible candidate. He may lose an election that a sane Republican nominee should win by a large margin.
The 2021-22 vibecession first identified by Kyla Scanlon and weak vibecovery since 2022 has left Americans in a sour mood about the economy. No incumbent party has ever kept the White House with the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) – the best measure of Americans’ feelings about the economy – as low as it is now.
Notes: October ICS for all years except September 2024. I adjusted Sept. 2024 ICS based on my own calculations to be comparable with past ICS data before April 2024 change in ICS survey method. Election margins are based on % shares of the votes received by the 2 major parties, not all votes including minor parties with no chance to win.
If Harris does win in these difficult circumstances, it will be because:
Trump is too stupid to give priority to exploiting economic issues.
Harris transmits a forward-looking message that her policies will make Americans better off financially in future.
Good economic news later this month about lower inflation (Oct. 10 CPI) and continued economic growth (Oct. 30 GDP) may take some heat out of lingering public anger about high inflation in 2021 and 2022.
Why did Obama win? Feelings about the economy, stupid
Democratic candidate Obama won in 2008 with the Republican Party struggling to retain the White House in the middle of a severe economic recession. Consumer sentiment fell by 18% in October 2008 just before the election – the largest monthly decline in the history of monthly ICS data.
Bearing the burden of an economic crisis, Republican candidate McCain did well to lose by a respectable margin. Obama’s advisory team had no bearing on his 2008 win.